This study focuses on developing a navigational safety collision probability model using Monte Carlo simulation to predict the risk of collisions between vessels and navigational obstacles, particularly floating debris, during maritime operations. Navigational obstacles are objects that can hinder or pose risks to vessel navigation in the sea and are a major cause of maritime accidents. The study analyzes maritime accident statistics related to the floating matter coiled entanglement from the past five years, along with seven years of accident data, to identify patterns in accident occurrence. Based on this, various risk assessment methodologies are reviewed. Through the Monte Carlo simulation, the probability of collision between floating matter and vessels moving within a randomly defined sea area was calculated. The study also analyzed the effects of various factors, such as the size, quantity, and velocity of the drift object, as well as vessel traffic patterns, on the probability of collisions. The research findings indicated that the probability of a collision is influenced more by the size of the drifting obstacle and the number of moving vessels, rather than the speed of the obstacle. This research proposes a realistic model that reflects the uncertainties of the marine environment, aiming to enhance navigational safety and provide effective management measures to prevent accidents.