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ISSN : 1229-3431(Print)
ISSN : 2287-3341(Online)
Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment and Safety Vol.29 No.2 pp.98-105
DOI : https://doi.org/10.7837/kosomes.2023.29.2.098

Variability of Sea Water Characteristics and Sea Levels Due to Climate Change and Appropriate Adaptation Strategies in Gyeonggi Bay

Suah Lee*†
*Graduate Student, School of Global Policy & Strategy, University of California San Diego, San Diego, CA 92093, USA
† Corresponding Author : Suah.S.Lee@gmail.com
February 10, 2023 March 27, 2023 April 27, 2023

Abstract


This paper studies the effects of global climate change on Gyeonggi Bay and appropriate adaptation strategies. Located along the west coast of Korea, Gyeonggi Bay is renowned as one of the five most important global tidal flats (wetlands). Due to climate change in Gyeonggi Bay, the water temperature is predicted to increase by 1.44 ℃ by the year 2100, the salinity to decrease by 1.1 PSU, the sea level to rise by 35.2 cm, and approximately 150.5 km2 of the coast to be submerged due to the rising sea levels. Adaptation strategies to combat negative impacts of climate change on the ecological environment of Gyeonggi Bay include 1) supporting the self-adaptation capability of Gyeonggi Bay’s natural environment to be sustainable, and 2) protecting lowlands adjacent to tidal flats and low-lying areas of the coast against human involvement to reserve more space for upslope shifts of biota with rising sea levels.


Gyeonggi Bay , Tidal flat (Wetland) , Climate change , Ecological environment , Water temperature , Salinity , Sea level , Adaptation strategies

한국 경기만의 기후 변화에 따른 해수 물리적 특성 및 해수면 영향과 적응 대책

이수아*†
*캘리포니아대학교 국제정책전략학부 대학원생

초록


세계 5대 갯벌해역으로 유명한 한국 서해 경기만의 기후변화 영향을 파악하고, 기후변화 영향을 최소화하기 위한 적응방안 연 구하였다. 경기만의 기후변화 영향으로 2100년에 수온은 1.2 ℃ 증가하고, 염분이 1.1 PSU 감소하며, 해수면은 35.2 cm 상승하는 것으로 예 측되었다. 또한 해수면 상승의 효과로 150.5 km2의 해안지역이 침수될 것으로 예상되었다. 기후변화로 인한 경기만 생태환경 영향을 최소 화하기 위한 적응대책으로는 1) 경기만 자체 자연환경의 적응능력 유지를 위한 지원, 2) 생물 서식지 확보를 위한 인간 활동 조정 등 두가 지 방안이 제시되었다.


경기만 , 갯벌(습지) , 기후 변화 , 생태 환경 , 수온 , 염분 , 해수면 , 적응 전략

    1. Introduction

    Gyeonggi Bay is located on the west coast of Korea (Fig. 1). The sea along the west coast of Korea is part of the Yellow Sea and has one of the largest tidal flats in the world (Murry et al., 2019) (Fig. 2). Additionally, the tidal flat (wetland) in Gyeonggi Bay is regarded as one of the five most important tidal flats1) globally (Kim, 2015) due to their vital role in preventing global warming by absorbing carbon dioxide (CO2) present in the atmosphere (Miththapala, 2013). The capacity of the carbon sinks of the tidal flat in Ganghwa County2) in northern Gyeonggi Bay is estimated to be approximately 4,431.5 Gigagrams, with a predicted potential reduction of CO2 of 16.3 Teragrams (Byun et al., 2019). Tidal flats are also continually exposed to repeated cycles of tidal change, and thereby exhibit high biomass levels. They are inhabited by diverse types of life, including microorganisms, invertebrates, fish, shorebirds, and wading birds (Miththapala, 2013). In the tidal flat around Korea, 851 species consisting of 164 species of plants and 687 species of animals exist, wherein 47% of global wading birds face a risk of extinction (MOF, 2011). Seashores and islands in Gyeonggi Bay have been known to the public as wetlands for incoming migratory birds of diverse types, including protected migratory birds such as the black-faced spoonbill, Chinese egret, black-headed seagull (Larus saundersi) black-winged stilt (Himantopus himantopus), as well as numerous resident birds (KIOST, 2003). Given this significance, the Korean tidal flat is currently registered by the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands as one of international importance for conservation and sustainability.

    In addition, the tidal flat in Gyeonggi Bay is atypical in that it is at an estuary with inflows from the Han River, Imjin River, and Yeseong River, increasing its ecological significance greatly (Koh and Khim, 2014). On the other hand, Gyeonggi Bay consists of a wide and shallow sea area as well as tidal flats, making it relatively vulnerable to the effects of climate change, such as increases in water temperatures or the rise of sea levels. In general, shallow seas have a small capacity and can be significantly susceptible to small environmental changes; thus, they may appear relatively vulnerable to climate change. The present study attempts to analyze the effects of climate change on the ecological environment of Gyeonggi Bay to suggest appropriate adaptation strategies. The effects of climate change on the ecological environment will be analyzed through analysis of fluctuations in water temperature, salinity, and sea level, after which predictive variations up to the year 2100 will be presented. Further, with regard to rising sea levels, predictions will be made pertaining to areas at greater risk of being submerged along with suggestions for appropriate adaptation strategies.

    2. Characteristics of Ecological Environment of Gyeonggi Bay

    The Gyeonggi Bay region covers an area of approximately 4,000 km2, with the length of the coastline spanning approximately 1,183.9 km (KIOST, 2003). The average depth of Gyeonggi Bay is approximately 20 meters(m), with the deepest parts reaching 40 m (KOHA, 2016). The seashore of Gyeonggi Bay consists of rocky coast, sandy coast, and mud coast, with the mud coast accounting for the majority, as well as surface tidal fluctuations up to 9 m. The flow of the Han River, Imjin River, and Yeseong River each form estuaries in Gyeonggi Bay, leading to the expansive development of the tidal flat. There are three estuaries, so freshwater is abundant in nutrition due to tidal waves, wide development of tidal flats, various species, and ecologically important places. The coast of Gyeonggi Bay spans 10 km between low tide and high tide with the gradient consisting largely of 10 degrees (KMI, 2003). The area of tidal flats in Gyeonggi Bay covers 838.5 km2, accounting for approximately 35% of the entire area of tidal flats in South Korea (MOF, 1998). Gyeonggi Bay is an archipelago with a total of 219 islands, including uninhabited islands such as Gangwha Island (300 km2), Gyodong island (46.9 km2), Seokmo Island (42.8 km2), Baekryeong Island (45.8 km2), and Daebu Island (34.4 km2) (MIS, 1996), a number of which are at risk of being negatively affected by changing sea levels due to climate change.

    Due to the proximity of Gyeonggi Bay’s tidal flats and seashores to the capital city of South Korea, they are exposed to accelerating demand for expansionary industrial and urban development, with the execution of civil works such as reclamation and landfill projects as well as the construction of bridges and tidal embankments. Since the 1950s, the length of Gyeonggi Bay’s shoreline has decreased by approximately 232 km, due to a lower sinuosity value (shoreline length / straight distance) between 2.05 to 2.59, compared to the average of 4.68 for other shorelines in South Korea (KIOST, 1996). In essence, industrial and urban expansion is forcibly reshaping Gyeonggi Bay and negatively impacting the existence of the current regional biota.

    Water temperatures in Gyeonggi Bay exhibit distinctive seasonal variations, wherein the surface and bottom layers of the water manifest aspects similar to each other. Observations of the water temperature of the upper and bottom layers at station T of Fig. 3, carried out bimonthly for 52 years from 1970 to 2021 in Gyeonggi Bay by the National Institute of Fisheries Science (NIFS), recorded averages of 12.35℃ and 11.99℃ with standard deviations of 7.4 0℃ and 7.21℃, respectively (Fig. 4). Fig. 4 shows the bimonthly normals of the water temperature of the upper and bottom layers at station T of Fig. 3. Salinities in the seawater of Gyeonggi Bay also show seasonal variations similar to the water temperatures. However, the annual average salinity in the seawater varies somewhat broadly due to the varied inflow of water. Salinities in the surface and bottom layers of the seawater are similar to the variations of the water temperature. Observations of the salinity at station S of Fig. 3, taken bimonthly for 52 years from 1970 to 2021 in Gyeonggi Bay by the NIFS, revealed respective average salinities of 31.75 Practical Salinity Units (PSU) and 31.81 PSU with corresponding standard variations of 0.15 PSU and 0.13 PSU (Fig. 5). Fig. 5 shows the bimonthly normals of the salinity of the upper and bottom layers at station S of Fig. 3.

    The tide in the Gyeonggi Bay shows a semidiurnal pattern, with one high tide and one low tide alternating twice a day (two high and two low tides per day in total). The mean sea level of Gyeonggi Bay is 458.4 centimeters (cm), with the highest high tide being 916.8 cm (KHOA, 2020a). The tidal range of the spring tide in Gyeonggi Bay is 800.04 cm, whereas that of the neap tide is 357.92cm, and so a very wide variation is observed (KHOA, 2020a). Tidal currents in the Gyeonggi Bay also manifest a dominant semidiurnal pattern, of which the speed of the strongest current reaches 1.5 knots (KHOA, 2020b).

    3. Effect of Climate Change on Gyeonggi Bay

    To identify the effects of climate change on Gyeonggi Bay, the variations in water temperatures, salinities, and sea levels, all of which can influence the ecological environment, need to be examined. In addition, various submersed areas associated with the topographies of the seashore and tidal flats, and variations in sea levels, should be analyzed.

    The water temperature of Gyeonggi Bay had been observed bimonthly for 52 years from 1970 to 2021 at station T of Fig. 3, with the average temperature increasing at a rate of 0.18℃ per decade (Fig. 6). Fig. 6 shows the fluctuations of the water temperature and the trend of those by the least squares regression. KEI (2010) suggested 0.13℃ per 10 years as a rate of increase in the water temperature for 40 years from 1970 to 2009 at the same point. The higher rate of increase of the water temperature in 2021 than in 2009 means the water temperature increase is accelerating. Given the rate of increase in 2021, the average water temperatures of Gyeonggi Bay were predicted to increase by 0.36℃ by 2040, 0.90℃ by 2070, and 1.44℃ by 2100. This potentially leads to a rising sea level, which could cause species inhabiting the region to become displaced from their original low coastal habitats to higher elevated ones. Therefore, the rising water temperature can accelerate the pressure of changing ecological habitats due to rising sea levels. The salinity in Gyeonggi Bay showed a decreasing trend over the long term, in which observations over the same 52 year period at the station S of Fig. 3 indicated that the average value of the salinity in Gyeonggi Bay decreased by 0.103 PSU every ten years (Fig. 7). Fig. 7 shows the fluctuations of the salinity and the decreasing trend of those. KEI (2010) suggested 0.12 PSU per 10 years as a rate of decrease in the salinity for 40 years from 1970 to 2009 at the same point. Given the rate in 2021, the salinity can be predicted to decrease by 0.206 PSU by 2040, 0.515 PSU by 2070, and 0.824 PSU by 2100. Conditions of salinity and temperature of the ocean refer to changes in the biological habitat environment. Since temperature and salinity are the basic elements of the marine ecosystem, it is necessary to explain changes in the ecosystem environment.

    To identify the variations in the sea level in Gyeonggi Bay, variations of the monthly mean sea level and extreme sea level estimated from the hourly observing sea levels at tide station of (Fig. 3) for 62 years from 1960 to 2021 were analyzed. An analysis of the variations in the mean sea level of Gyeonggi Bay showed an increasing long-term trend of 1.76 cm every ten years (Fig. 8). According to this trend, the mean sea level of Gyeonggi Bay is predicted to increase by 3.52 cm by 2040, 8.80 cm by the year 2070, and 14.08 cm by the year 2100. Additionally, the extreme sea level, signifying the highest possible sea level, also continually increases in the long-term (Fig. 9). The extreme sea level of Gyeonggi Bay appears to increase by 2.64 cm every ten years. Accordingly, the extreme sea level of Gyeonggi Bay was predicted to increase by 5.28 cm by 2040, 13.20 cm by the year 2070, and 21.12 cm by the year 2100. A rise in sea level in Gyeonggi Bay is also accelerating. KEI (2010) reported rising of 0.9 cm per 10 years in the mean sea level and 2.12 cm per 10 years in the extreme sea level for 50 years from 1960 to 2009 at the same point of Gyeonggi Bay.

    Such a rise in the sea level can submerge the tidal flat and coastal areas, due to the cascading effect of a rising mean sea level causing a proportional rise in the extreme sea level. In the event of an observed overlap in the rise of the mean sea level and a rise of the extreme sea level, the sea level of Gyeonggi Bay is predicted to increase by 8.8 cm by 2040, 22.0 cm by the year 2070, and 35.2 cm by the year 2100. The changes in altitude in Gyeonggi Bay were simulated by applying the increased sea level to the current distribution of altitudes (Fig. 10), from which new submersion areas of 98.2 km2 and 150.5 km2 were predicted to appear by the years 2070 and 2100, respectively. Fig. 10 shows new submersion areas by the year 2100.

    According to the Ministry of Environment (ME), the effects of climate change in Gyeonggi Bay are reflected in the increase of the water temperature, the decrease in the salinity, and the rise of the sea level, each of which plays a role in impacting the ecological balance of the region (ME, 2010). The rate of increase in the water temperature of Gyeonggi Bay is 0.18℃ every ten years, which is lower than the rate of 0.25℃ every ten years of the average increase of water temperature in the entire coast of Korea, as presented by the RGM (2020). The mean rate of increase of 1.76 cm every ten years in Gyeonggi Bay’s sea level is also lower than the value of 2.97 cm every ten years for the average rising rate of the sea level off the coast of Korea, as presented by the RGM (2020). In 2010, the sea level of Gyeonggi Bay was predicted to rise by 35.2 cm based on observations of mean sea level and the extreme sea level. However, these values are below the global average increase in sea level of 28-55 cm for RCP1.9 and 63-101 cm for RCP8.5, as published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2021).3) The Gyeonggi Bay encompasses a wide area of tidal flats with gentle slants connected to corresponding coastal areas with gentle slopes, and so the effects of the submergence of the tidal flat and coastal area of Gyeonggi Bay will apply to relatively wide areas, with the resulting shrinkage of habitats bringing about significant ecological losses. Thus, despite the lower-than-average changes observed in the region compared to the Korean coast overall, Gyeonggi Bay’s ecological significance warrants urgent efforts to minimize the effects of climate change on the tidal flat region and the diverse range of life that inhabits it.

    4. Adaptation Strategy for Conservation of the Ecosystem in Gyeonggi Bay

    This study presented the effects of physical characteristics of sea water and sea level caused by climate change. Since water temperature and salt are fundamental factors in the marine environment, fluctuations in those factors can affect the entire marine ecosystem. Therefore, adaptation measures to changes in water temperature and salt are required to be studied holistically in the whole marine ecosystem. In this study, the discussion of the results was limited to sea level effects and adaptation measures.

    The objectives of the effort to adapt to climate change in coastal areas include sustaining the spontaneous functions and health of the coastal ecosystem, reducing the vulnerability of marine structures, and reinforcing the governance framework for the adaptation of coastal areas to climate change (USAID, 2009). These goals require the socio-economic activities of humans to be adjusted to be more environmentally friendly, for which support is necessary to exert and maximize spontaneous natural adaptive capabilities. In fact, spontaneous adaptations of nature against climate change have already been observed, although organized efforts may be necessary alternatives for more efficient and effective adaptation (Klein et al., 1999). Regarding Gyeonggi Bay, the submergence of tidal flats due to rising sea levels is expected despite the increased net area of the tidal flat (SK, 2020). The area of the tidal flat in Gyeonggi Bay varied by 76.4 km2 during the period of 1998 to 2018, with an overall net increase of variation by 57.5 km2. The resulting phenomena are regarded as stemming from a combination of the rising sea level and the processes of coastal erosion or sedimentation, which can also be considered as an anthropocentric adaptation of nature to the influences of climate change and coastal development activities conducted by humans. The adaptation encompasses a negative connotation as the regional ecosystem is unwittingly coerced into incorporating the effects of coastal development and climate change to exacerbate the ongoing processes of sea level rise, coastal erosion, and etc.

    Two adaptation strategies against climate change to conserving the ecosystem in Gyeonggi Bay can be pursued, as explained below:

    The first is to support the self-adaptation capability of the natural environment of Gyeonggi Bay to be sustainable. This involves the development and implementation of policy to minimize the submergence of the tidal flat and coastal area by human coastal development activities. For the development and implementation of such a policy, a precise understanding of the processes of coastal erosion and sedimentation, as well as the characteristics of the tidal currents, is mandatory. Based on this understanding, the human activities of coastal development, consisting of reclamation, landfilling, tidal embankment, and bridge construction tasks should be suppressed, controlled, or adjusted to help the self-adaptation capability of the natural environment.

    Second, lowlands adjacent to tidal flats and low-lying areas of the coast should be left free of human involvement to reserve more space for upslope shifts of biota by the sea level rise. In cases of the submergence of low-lying lands due to the rise of sea levels, the habitats of living organisms are at substantial risk of being destroyed. Thus, the migration of domains of human activities toward higher land areas is necessary to create buffer areas against the submergence of tidal flats and low-lying coastal areas. For this purpose, the designation of limit lines to protect lowland areas considering the rise of sea level should be required for the construction plans of coastal roads and coastal facilities. Ultimately, the restriction policy on the development and implementation of coastal development plans to reserve habitats for the organisms living on low-lying lands should be actively promoted.

    These adaptation measures are well illustrated in domestic and international research cases (Yoon, 2016), and are being studied to evaluate and strengthen resilience in coastal areas (Nam et al., 2009;Seo et al., 2012).

    5. Conclusions

    In the present study, the effects of climate change on the ecological environment of Gyeonggi Bay were analyzed, and adaptive measures pertinent to the adaptation of Gyeonggi Bay to climate change were presented. The water temperature in the sea of Gyeonggi Bay was predicted to increase by 1.44℃ by 2100 due to the effects of global climate change, whereas the salinity in the water was predicted to decrease by 0.824 PSU. In addition, the sea level of Gyeonggi Bay was predicted to rise to 35.2 cm by 2100, with a coastal area of 150.5 km2 predicted to be submerged due to this rise of the sea level. Since the results of this paper predict future fluctuations based on past trends, the actual fluctuation value may be different from what is expected. The results of this study present the risk of changes in the marine environment due to climate change, and the exact physical quantity of changes needs to be evaluated through further detailed research.

    Adaptation strategies for Gyeonggi Bay against global climate change and to decrease the potential for the submergence of tidal flats and coastal areas owing to the rise of the sea level are presented, as are the conservation measures to preserve habitats. The first adaptation strategy is to support the self-adaption capability of the natural environment of Gyeonggi Bay to be more sustainable. The second is to protect lowlands adjacent to tidal flats and low-lying areas of the coast against human involvement in order to reserve more space for upslope shifts of biota due to the rising sea level.

    In terms of numerical values, the effects of climate change on Gyeonggi Bay appear to be less severe than the global average or those on entire Korea; however, with regard to the topographical and ecological significance of Gyeonggi Bay, adaptive measures to mitigate global climate change are urgent. The development of adaptive measures against global climate change is essential for the preservation of the ecosystem, and this process is necessary for the conservation of the region as a whole.

    Figure

    KOSOMES-29-2-98_F1.gif

    Location of Gyeonggi Bay and the Tidal Flats Distribution in the Coast of Korea (Marked area of Gyeonggi Bay and English geographical names and remarks on the map of the tidal flat distribution in the coast of Korea, published by NGII in 2016).

    KOSOMES-29-2-98_F2.gif

    Satellite Image of Tidal Flat in Gyeonggi Bay (MOF, 2005).

    KOSOMES-29-2-98_F3.gif

    Observation Stations of Tide by KHOA (2022) and Temperature (T) and Salinity (S) by NIFS (2022) in Gyeonggi Bay.

    KOSOMES-29-2-98_F4.gif

    Bimonthly Normals of Temperatures of Surface (upper) and Bottom (lower) at the Observation Station T in Gyeonggi Bay for 52 Years from the Year of 1970 to 2021 (Data Source: NIFS, 2022).

    KOSOMES-29-2-98_F5.gif

    Bimonthly Normals of Salinities of Surface (upper) and Bottom (lower) at the Observation Station S in Gyeonggi Bay for 52 Years from the Year of 1970 to 2021 (Data Source: NIFS, 2022).

    KOSOMES-29-2-98_F6.gif

    Bimonthly Temperatures of Surface (upper) and Bottom (lower) at the Observation Station T in Gyeonggi Bay 52 Years from the Year of 1970 to 2021 (Data Source: NIFS, 2022).

    KOSOMES-29-2-98_F7.gif

    Bimonthly Salinities of Surface (upper) and Bottom (lower) at the Observation Station S in Gyeonggi Bay 52 Years from the Year of 1970 to 2021 (Data Source: NIFS, 2022).

    KOSOMES-29-2-98_F8.gif

    Monthly Mean Sea Level at the Tide Station in Gyeonggi Bay for 62 Years from the Year of 1960 to 2021 (Data Source: KHOA, 2022).

    KOSOMES-29-2-98_F9.gif

    Monthly Extreme High Sea Level (Upper) and Low Sea Level (Lower) at the Tide Observation Station in Gyeonggi Bay for 62 Years from the Year of 1960 to 2021 (Data Source: KHOA, 2022).

    KOSOMES-29-2-98_F10.gif

    Simulated Submersion Area by Applying the Predicted Sea Level Rise in the Year 2100 to the current distribution of altitudes in the Year 2100 (Altitudes Data Source: KNGII, 2020). Submersion Areas were Presented by Red Colour Area.

    Table

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